Thursday, June 25, 2009

Of Quarantines And The Failure Of Logic


So here's the beef (or, well, the pork): we have this little bugger called the Influenza A virus subtype H1N1--which we affectionately call H1N1 for short--running around our little island infecting everyone it can, in a passionate attempt by demonic forces in the hopes of bringing about an early armageddon. Usually, these hellish fiends would be banished with ease by the holy triumvirate Panadol, Paracetamol and Vitamin C. However, it appears that this time the diabolical schemes of the netherworld are showing signs of innovation to the effect of marginal success. The essence of its accomplishment can be said to lie in the sheer stealthiness that this mini-Mephisto adopts in its spread ; the crowning glory of our good friend H1N1 presents itself as none other than the 7 day incubation period which it leaves in its infectious wake.

The genius in a plan this devious lies precisely in this 7 day period of uncertainty. In these 7 days the common populace becomes utterly overwhelmed by the dually destructive nature of the virus:

1) The silent assassin creeps from victim to victim, and each knows nothing of how he abets the murderer in claiming another, for one can act as a carrier even before symptoms present themselves. This is a particularly clever trick, as the virus avoids detection until the time comes where it is too late to adopt corrective or preventive measures. A smart move and one point for H1N1, for it brilliantly exploits the reactive nature of humans; people only take action if they detect outward manifestations of illness. The thing is, unlike conventional illnesses which insist on first making their presence known before proceeding to harrass passersby (not unlike a boisterous drunk in a bar), this bug simultaneously searches out other victims as it subtly drains the life out of its target at hand (or a gold digger, as kanye would put it). Dangerous, huh.

2) A cloud of suspicion thicker than haze from Indonesia begins to form as the general populace begins to point fingers (also on occasion, 'finger' in the singular). Since no one knows who could be a possible carrier, every person who clears his throat or blows his nose suddenly gets stares as if his name begins with a Mas and ends with a Selamat. It is in this atmosphere of fear that something far worse arises from the fires of Hades (and this is the magic of it all, that the devils who crafted this disease could foresee what was to come): Quarantines.

"And what makes you say that?", you might be asking.

***

Let us try to analyze the effects of a quarantine of a hypothetical scenario involving specimen "I":

Background: Specimen 'I' is given home quarantine for having been in contact with one who has tested positive for H1N1. Since this is still within the 7 day incubation period, the underlying rationale for this quarantine would be to hinder the further spread of this virus.

So now we have two possibilities:
Possibility One: 'I' does not have H1N1
Possibility Two: 'I' has H1N1

If Possibility One were true, then these 7 days would be a complete and utter waste of time, for specimen 'I' has just been left at home to watch reruns of Days of Our Lives for the fifteenth time in a row in a sorry bid to pass the time.

Now let's assume Possibility Two; that specimen 'I' does have H1N1, but is not showing any symptoms yet. Specimen 'I' then stays at home, where he does not head out to public places, and hence does not come into the relative proximity of specimens 'Members of the Public'. However, due to the limited area in containment unit 'Home', specimen 'I' instead comes into markedly more close contact with specimens 'Family Members'. Due to the very nature of containment unit 'Home', specimens 'I' and 'Family Members' are left little choice but to reside within the same walls and breathe the same air.

Due to the airbone nature of virus H1N1 and the close proximity of the two specimens, it can be seen that the chance of infection for specimen 'Family Members' increases dramatically. However, it has already been established that even if one were to catch the virus, the 7 day incubation period would be such that in the event that specimen 'Family Members' were to contract the virus, they would nevertheless still essentially be none the wiser.

As specimen 'Family Members' are not issued with home quarantines, they are thus able to venture forth from the confines of containment unit 'Home', to other facilities such as 'Work' or 'School'. The limited confines of these two containment units then places specimen 'Family Members' in close contact of specimen such as 'Others'. It can thus be hypothesized from statistics already gathered that virus H1N1 will eventually be transmitted to these specimen.

This hypothetical scenario thus presents, analytically and scientifically, the proposition that the act of quarantining members of the public who have come into contact with patients with confirmed cases of H1N1 is one which, while appearing to be highly civic-minded, ultimately proves to be utterly and completely pointless in light of preventing the spread of H1N1--an ultimately ineffectual strategy residing under a facade of organization and professionalism.


***

Such is the calamity that we face today:
An epidemic engendered by micro-organisms, but propagated through panic.
The crisis lies not so much in the threat that this virus poses to us, but rather the danger we pose to ourselves

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